PWPrint Watch

Track record

Accuracy

The favorite is the highest pre-release price among same-width brackets — Kalshi’s most common gap between “above” strikes, plus that market’s own top “above” contract, and the buckets Polymarket or FOMC list — and a hit means the bracket contained the print. Derived Kalshi prices are rescaled so those buckets sum to 100%. Kalshi jobs brackets are 10,000 wide when that is the common strike gap, while Polymarket lists 25,000-wide ranges; CPI brackets are 0.1 point. Ties and releases with no captured prices for a venue are shown, and left out of that venue’s rate. CME FedWatch probabilities are not stored, so FedWatch is never scored.

SeriesKalshiPolymarketFedWatch
CPI8/18 · 44.4%1/2 · 50%—
Jobs2/17 · 11.8%1/1 · 100%—
FOMC13/13 · 100%1/1 · 100%—
All23/48 · 47.9%3/4 · 75%—
ReleasePrintKalshiPolymarketFedWatch
October 2026CPI · Nov 10, 2026Headline +0.4% MoMMiss · 0.3%Miss · 0.2%Not captured
October 2026Jobs · Nov 6, 2026+165,000 payrolls, 4.1% unemploymentMiss · 80,000 to 90,000Hit · 100k+Not captured
October 28, 2026FOMC · Oct 28, 2026No change · 3.75–4.00%Hit · No changeHit · No changeNot captured
September 2026CPI · Oct 14, 2026Headline +0.6% MoM, +3.7% YoYHit · 0.6%Hit · 0.6%Not captured
September 2026Jobs · Oct 2, 2026+60,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemploymentMiss · Above 125,000Not capturedNot captured
September 16, 2026FOMC · Sep 16, 2026Hike 25bp · 3.75–4.00%Hit · Hike 25bpNot capturedNot captured
August 2026CPI · Sep 11, 2026Headline +0.4% MoM, +3.4% YoYMiss · 0.3%Not capturedNot captured
August 2026Jobs · Sep 4, 2026+162,000 payrolls, 4.1% unemploymentMiss · 50,000 to 60,000Not capturedNot captured
July 2026CPI · Aug 12, 2026Headline +0.1% MoM, +3.4% YoYHit · 0.1%Not capturedNot captured
July 2026Jobs · Aug 7, 2026-23,000 payrolls, 4.1% unemploymentTie · 70,000 to 80,000 / Above 125,000Not capturedNot captured
July 29, 2026FOMC · Jul 29, 2026No change · 3.50–3.75%Hit · No changeNot capturedNot captured
June 2026CPI · Jul 14, 2026Headline -0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoYMiss · -0.2%Not capturedNot captured
June 2026Jobs · Jul 2, 2026+31,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemploymentMiss · Above 175,000Not capturedNot captured
June 17, 2026FOMC · Jun 17, 2026No change · 3.50–3.75%Hit · No changeNot capturedNot captured
May 2026CPI · Jun 10, 2026Headline +0.5% MoM, +4.2% YoYHit · 0.5%Not capturedNot captured
May 2026Jobs · Jun 5, 2026+63,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemploymentMiss · Above 150,000Not capturedNot captured
April 2026CPI · May 12, 2026Headline +0.6% MoM, +3.8% YoYHit · 0.6%Not capturedNot captured
April 2026Jobs · May 8, 2026+148,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemploymentMiss · 70,000 to 80,000Not capturedNot captured
April 29, 2026FOMC · Apr 29, 2026No change · 3.50–3.75%Hit · No changeNot capturedNot captured
March 2026CPI · Apr 10, 2026Headline +0.9% MoM, +3.3% YoYHit · 0.9%Not capturedNot captured
March 2026Jobs · Apr 3, 2026+214,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemploymentHit · Above 125,000Not capturedNot captured
March 18, 2026FOMC · Mar 18, 2026No change · 3.50–3.75%Hit · No changeNot capturedNot captured
February 2026CPI · Mar 11, 2026Headline +0.3% MoM, +2.4% YoYHit · 0.3%Not capturedNot captured
February 2026Jobs · Mar 6, 2026-156,000 payrolls, 4.4% unemploymentMiss · 50,000 to 60,000Not capturedNot captured
January 2026CPI · Feb 13, 2026Headline +0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoYMiss · 0.3%Not capturedNot captured
January 2026Jobs · Feb 11, 2026+160,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemploymentHit · Above 125,000Not capturedNot captured
January 28, 2026FOMC · Jan 28, 2026No change · 3.50–3.75%Hit · No changeNot capturedNot captured
December 2025CPI · Jan 13, 2026Headline +0.3% MoM, +2.7% YoYMiss · 0.4%Not capturedNot captured
December 2025Jobs · Jan 9, 2026-17,000 payrolls, 4.4% unemploymentMiss · 80,000 to 90,000Not capturedNot captured
December 10, 2025FOMC · Dec 10, 2025Cut 25bp · 3.50–3.75%Hit · Cut 25bpNot capturedNot captured
November 2025CPI · Dec 10, 2025Headline +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoYHit · 0.2%Not capturedNot captured
November 2025Jobs · Dec 5, 2025+64,000 payrolls, 4.5% unemploymentMiss · 75,000 to 100,000Not capturedNot captured
October 2025CPI · Nov 13, 2025Headline +0.2% MoM, +3.3% YoYHit · 0.2%Not capturedNot captured
October 2025Jobs · Nov 7, 2025-140,000 payrolls, — unemploymentMiss · 0 to 25,000Not capturedNot captured
October 29, 2025FOMC · Oct 29, 2025Cut 25bp · 3.75–4.00%Hit · Cut 25bpNot capturedNot captured
September 2025CPI · Oct 15, 2025Headline +0.3% MoM, +3.0% YoYMiss · 0.4%Not capturedNot captured
September 2025Jobs · Oct 3, 2025+76,000 payrolls, 4.4% unemploymentMiss · 25,000 to 50,000Not capturedNot captured
September 17, 2025FOMC · Sep 17, 2025Cut 25bp · 4.00–4.25%Hit · Cut 25bpNot capturedNot captured
August 2025CPI · Sep 11, 2025Headline +0.4% MoM, +2.9% YoYMiss · 0.3%Not capturedNot captured
August 2025Jobs · Sep 5, 2025-70,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemploymentMiss · 50,000 to 75,000Not capturedNot captured
July 2025CPI · Aug 12, 2025Headline +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoYMiss · 0.3%Not capturedNot captured
July 2025Jobs · Aug 1, 2025+64,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemploymentMiss · 150,000 to 200,000Not capturedNot captured
July 30, 2025FOMC · Jul 30, 2025No change · 4.25–4.50%Hit · No changeNot capturedNot captured
June 2025CPI · Jul 15, 2025Headline +0.3% MoM, +2.7% YoYMiss · 0.2%Not capturedNot captured
June 2025Jobs · Jul 3, 2025-20,000 payrolls, 4.1% unemploymentMiss · 100,000 to 150,000Not capturedNot captured
June 18, 2025FOMC · Jun 18, 2025No change · 4.25–4.50%Hit · No changeNot capturedNot captured
May 2025CPI · Jun 11, 2025Headline +0.1% MoM, +2.4% YoYMiss · 0.2%Not capturedNot captured
May 2025Jobs · Jun 6, 2025+13,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemploymentMiss · 100,000 to 150,000Not capturedNot captured
May 7, 2025FOMC · May 7, 2025No change · 4.25–4.50%Hit · No changeNot capturedNot captured