Jobs
Employment situation for October 2026
Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:30 AM EST
What printed
- Nonfarm payrolls
- +165,000
- Unemployment
- 4.1%
Payrolls change is the latest published BLS total-nonfarm level minus the prior month, in jobs. Unemployment is the latest published rate. Both can be revised after the initial print. When Kalshi recorded the payrolls settlement value, that figure is the headline change.
What markets leaned toward
100k+
Kalshi 30.0% · Polymarket 30.5%
Highest captured price before the release. Updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:30 AM EST.
Odds before the print
- Kalshi · Above -25,000
- Kalshi · Above 0
- Kalshi · Above 10,000
- Kalshi · Above 20,000
Bracket by bracket
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| <-25k | 4.0% | 12.4% |
| 25k to 50k | — | 22.5% |
| 50k to 75k | — | 20.0% |
| 75k to 100k | — | 16.5% |
| 100k+ | 30.0% | 30.5% |
Kalshi percents on aligned rows are implied from “above X” contracts. They are not renormalized, so a row can be blank when the matching strike was not listed.