Jobs
Employment situation for September 2025
Fri, Oct 3, 2025, 8:30 AM EDT
What printed
- Nonfarm payrolls
- +76,000
- Unemployment
- 4.4%
Payrolls change is the latest published BLS total-nonfarm level minus the prior month, in jobs. Unemployment is the latest published rate. Both can be revised after the initial print. When Kalshi recorded the payrolls settlement value, that figure is the headline change.
What markets leaned toward
Market data not captured.
Odds before the print
- Kalshi · Above -100,000
- Kalshi · Above 0
- Kalshi · Above 25,000
- Kalshi · Above 50,000
Bracket by bracket
Kalshi
- ≤ -100,0003.0%
- -100,000 to 018.0%
- 0 to 25,00021.0%
- 25,000 to 50,00022.0%
- 50,000 to 75,00016.0%
- 75,000 to 100,00010.0%
- 100,000 to 125,0004.0%
- Above 125,0006.0%
Polymarket
Market data not captured.
Kalshi percents on aligned rows are implied from “above X” contracts. They are not renormalized, so a row can be blank when the matching strike was not listed.