PWPrint Watch

Jobs

Employment situation for January 2026

Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 8:30 AM EST

What printed

Nonfarm payrolls
+160,000
Unemployment
4.3%

Payrolls change is the latest published BLS total-nonfarm level minus the prior month, in jobs. Unemployment is the latest published rate. Both can be revised after the initial print. When Kalshi recorded the payrolls settlement value, that figure is the headline change.

What markets leaned toward

Market data not captured.

Odds before the print

025507510001-2702-11
  • Kalshi · Above 100,000
  • Kalshi · Above 0
  • Kalshi · Above 50,000
  • Kalshi · Above 70,000

Bracket by bracket

Kalshi

  • ≤ -25,0001.0%
  • -25,000 to 00.0%
  • 0 to 10,0000.0%
  • 10,000 to 20,0000.0%
  • 20,000 to 30,0000.0%
  • 30,000 to 40,0000.0%
  • 40,000 to 50,0000.0%
  • 50,000 to 60,0000.0%
  • 60,000 to 70,0000.0%
  • 70,000 to 80,0000.0%
  • 80,000 to 90,0000.0%
  • 90,000 to 100,0000.0%
  • 100,000 to 125,0000.0%
  • Above 125,00099.0%

Polymarket

Market data not captured.

    Kalshi percents on aligned rows are implied from “above X” contracts. They are not renormalized, so a row can be blank when the matching strike was not listed.

    Sources