PWPrint Watch

Jobs

Employment situation for November 2025

Fri, Dec 5, 2025, 8:30 AM EST

What printed

Nonfarm payrolls
+64,000
Unemployment
4.5%

Payrolls change is the latest published BLS total-nonfarm level minus the prior month, in jobs. Unemployment is the latest published rate. Both can be revised after the initial print. When Kalshi recorded the payrolls settlement value, that figure is the headline change.

What markets leaned toward

Market data not captured.

Odds before the print

025507510011-2012-05
  • Kalshi · Above -100,000
  • Kalshi · Above 0
  • Kalshi · Above 25,000
  • Kalshi · Above 50,000

Bracket by bracket

Kalshi

  • ≤ -100,0002.0%
  • -100,000 to 012.0%
  • 0 to 25,00013.0%
  • 25,000 to 50,00017.0%
  • 50,000 to 75,00016.0%
  • 75,000 to 100,00019.0%
  • 100,000 to 150,00013.0%
  • 150,000 to 200,0006.0%
  • 200,000 to 250,0001.0%
  • 250,000 to 300,0000.0%
  • Above 300,0001.0%

Polymarket

Market data not captured.

    Kalshi percents on aligned rows are implied from “above X” contracts. They are not renormalized, so a row can be blank when the matching strike was not listed.

    Sources